Adding to The Cigna Group
+11.7pp in CI this quarter — the book's largest single weight change.
Big move
GURU PROFILE · Q1 2025 · 13F-HR Standard
DF
David Jeffrey Fear — concentrated value
Thunderbird Partners, run by David Fear, holds a concentrated book with an outsized healthcare position and a very high contrarian reading.
Thunderbird Partners
- Positions
- 7
Avg Annual Return, 5 yr
+55,5%
Alpha vs S&P 500, Annual
+37,0%
Max Drawdown
−32,4%
Sharpe (5 yr)
1,48
DNA Fingerprint
6 axes · Q1 2025Q1 2025 (latest)
Style Traits
-
- Value Value / Growth
- 63 +14 since Q1 2024
Growth Value
-
- Risk Risk Appetite
- 78 −18 since Q1 2024
Low High
-
- Concentration Portfolio Focus
- 89 +12 since Q1 2024
Diversified Focused
-
- Turnover Trading Activity
- 98 +48 since Q1 2024
Long-term Active
-
- Quality Profitability
- 10 −60 since Q1 2024
Speculative Profitable
-
- Contrarian Contrarianism
- 90 +40 since Q1 2024
With Crowd Against Crowd
Methodology
Each axis is a percentile rank from 0 to 100 relative to the profiled guru cohort; 50 is the cohort midpoint. The higher the value, the stronger the trait. The dashed overlay is the median shape of the guru's behavioral peer group, so you can read where this investor is unusual within their own style. The Trajectory arrows trace the drift from four quarters ago to now — an illustration of the method over a short window, not a statistical claim.
- Value (Value / Growth) — how cheaply the portfolio's stocks are priced versus the market, by valuation multiples (e.g. price-to-earnings). A higher score means cheaper, value-style picks; a lower score means pricier, growth-style bets the market expects to grow fast.
- Risk (Risk Appetite) — how much price volatility and business fragility the portfolio carries. A higher score means bolder, more volatile holdings (think biotech or meme stocks); a lower score means defensive, steady names like utilities and staples.
- Concentration (Portfolio Focus) — how much of the portfolio sits in its few largest positions. A higher score means a focused book of big convictions; a lower score means bets spread thinly across many names.
- Turnover (Trading Activity) — how much the lineup of holdings changes from one quarter to the next. A higher score means an active trader rotating names in and out; a lower score means a patient, buy-and-hold roster.
- Quality (Profitability) — how profitable and financially solid the businesses in the portfolio are. A higher score means durable, profitable companies; a lower score means speculative or pre-profit bets.
- Contrarian (Contrarianism) — how often the guru's trades go against what the other gurus are doing. A higher score means buying what the crowd sells and vice versa; a lower score means moving with the consensus.
Extended DNA
Beyond the radar's six: two further behavioral reads — whether new buys add to existing holdings or start fresh, and the size of companies the book favors — on the same 0–100 cohort-percentile scale.
- Follow-On Buying — Of the quarter's buys, the share that add to tickers already held rather than open fresh positions. A higher score means doubling down on existing convictions; a lower score means spreading into new bets.
- Size Bias — Whether the book tilts toward large, easy-to-trade companies or smaller, thinly-traded ones — gauged from each holding's trading liquidity, which stands in for company size rather than measuring market cap directly. A higher score means large, liquid mega-caps; a lower score means smaller, less-liquid names.
-
- Conviction Follow-On Buying
- 14 −36 since Q1 2024
New bets Adds to conviction
-
- Size Size Bias
- 54 +3 since Q1 2024
Small-cap Large-cap
DNA Anomalies
2 deviations · basis Q1 2024–Q4 2024Dot colour — type of deviationConcentration / contrarianMomentumOther positions (no deviation)5% of portfolio
Backtest · Cost of Delay
real 13F delay vs S&P 500Guru (2 years)
+161,1%
Copier (13F)
+61,2%
S&P 500
+44,6%
Managers with assets above $100M disclose positions in Form 13F-HR within 45 days after quarter end. The backtest runs three $100,000 portfolios: the guru rebalances at quarter-end prices, the copier mirrors the same weights on the actual filing date, and S&P 500 is the benchmark.
The hatched area is the cost of delay: the difference in cumulative returns between the guru and the copier in percentage points. The delay is not always a disadvantage — if a stock fell between quarter end and the filing date, the copier buys in cheaper.
The guru curve is also a model: 13F shows only long positions in US equities at quarter end, without intra-quarter trades, shorts, or cash. Commissions, slippage, and taxes are not accounted for.
Notable Signals
synthesis metricsUnitedHealth Group Incorporated anchors the book at 46.3%
A 46.3% weight in a single name — concentration that makes UNH the book's center of gravity.
Conviction
Concentrated but restless
A concentrated book that still trades heavily — big convictions held with a quick trigger (concentration 89/100, turnover 98/100 vs peers).
Style tension
Cigar-butt deep value
Among the cohort's deepest value books, but low on quality — classic distressed-value hunting (value 63/100, quality 10/100 vs peers).
Style tension
Swinging for the fences
High risk appetite with low quality scores — the boom-or-bust end of the cohort (risk 78/100, quality 10/100 vs peers).
Aggressive
Top 7 Positions
of 7 · Q1 2025| Ticker | Company | Δ for quarter | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | −9,2 | 46,3% |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | −6,9 | 12,4% |
| CI | The Cigna Group | +11,7 | 11,7% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | +11,6 | 11,6% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | +10,0 | 10,0% |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | +4,6 | 4,6% |
| NTES | NetEase, Inc. | +3,3 | 3,3% |